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Monday
Jun152009

1933 Film Explains Why Inflation is Salvation

"About eight months ago, starting in early September 2008, the Bernanke Fed did an abrupt about-face and radically increased the monetary base," wrote the Wall Street Journal's Arthur Laffer. The reason? The U.S. government had to print vast sums of money to prevent the economy from slipping into a deflationary spiral of falling asset prices. But this isn't the first time the Fed used inflation as a solution to a financial crisis, as this 1933 propaganda film explains:

Printing more money may have offered a short-term solution to the recent crisis, but creates a very significant long-term problem: inflation. If more money is printed, a larger number of dollars are chasing the same number of goods, pushing prices higher. Rising prices have always concerned investors, because it reduces the buying power of their portfolios.

Mr. Laffer may be convinced that hyperinflation is just around the corner, but others, like NY Times columnists and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman, disagrees.

Krugman believes that there is little chance of inflation flaring up anytime soon because the economy is still contracting, and a good chunk of the Fed’s printed money is sitting idle in bank vaults instead of flowing through the economic system. “It’s important to realize that there’s no hint of inflationary pressures in the economy right now," he wrote in May 2009. "Deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger."

Should we be more afraid of deflation or inflation? The short answer is that no one knows. "It's difficult to estimate the magnitude of the inflationary and interest-rate consequences of the Fed's actions," concludes Laffer. "Frankly, we haven't ever seen anything like this in the U.S."

 

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