What Is David Neubert Doing In The Markets?
Sunday, October 4, 2009 at 12:10PM I'm reducing my equity exposure. (Selling stocks and stock mutual funds; and leaving the proceeds in a money market fund)
Why sell now? I think the market is priced for perfection. The recent rise in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to nearly 10,000 is saying that the recession is nearly over, and that the currently low interest rate environment will continue.
Is the Great Recession over, or just resting?
I think, the recession will raise its head again soon as the stimulus money spending is behind us.
Interest Rate Denial?
You've seen it, your money market account is yielding nearly zero. You know this can't last. The financial industry knows this can't last but isn't thinking about it. This denial is so strong and just below the surface that at the first whiff of talk the market will fall as people face reality. Rates don't actually have to rise, people just have to be afraid they'll rise for the market to fall.
Among other things, higher interest rates mean that stocks are less attractive as companies pay more to borrow money and thus have less left over for shareholders. Less leftover for shareholders mean that being one isn't as valuable.
When will I buy?
Once the market sells off and all the bad news is back on the lips of commentators, I think stocks will properly reflect value. I will also buy if the recession turns out to be over, albeit at a higher price than today.



